【哈薄出了一张欧洲牌, 叫六点】Harper better off for keeping cool amid crisis flak
【阅读文摘_经济】
【文字, 环球邮报, Feature 】
- John thought you would be interested in the following article from The
Globe and Mail, Canada's leading source for online news.Note from John
: Very interesting article -昨晚刚看了一篇吴宇森的新拍【赤壁】就觉得 "Harper" 像 ’小孔明‘ 甩了一张‘欧洲牌’， 又摆了一个难懂的‘六点阵法’。一语
Globe_read001
Harper better off for keeping cool amid crisis flak
Readers of Condé Nast Traveller vote floating B.C. lodge the best in the country, fourth best in the world NEIL REYNOLDS
Friday, Oct. 17 2008
Prime Minister Stephen Harper didn't announce 'a
six-point economic plan' on Wednesday, the first day of his second
term. He announced his day book. Meet with the European Union. Meet
with the premiers. Keep in touch with t he G7. Meet with the G20.
Summon Parliament. Review government spending.
The list suggests mostly that Mr. Harper will attend his
scheduled meetings. Presumably all these meetings will help the
government produce an authentic six-point economic plan in due course, perhaps by the end of November. In the meantime, the illusion will suffice.
The most important
action for Mr. Harper right now is probably to do nothing significant
at all – beyond frequent repetition of his promise, as his No. 1 job,
'to protect this country's economy, our earnings, our savings and our
jobs.' Mr. Harper took significant verbal abuse during the election
campaign for his lack of heroic action amid the economic crisis now bedevilling developed countries around the world.
Most notably, NDP Leader Jack Layton said the Prime Minister was ignorant of the crisis and indifferent to it. Mr. Harper kept his cool and declined to promise emergency measures – and now remains free to survey the wreckage before throwing more money at the crisis than is absolutely necessary. This is remarkably different from the United States, where the government is burning through money at a prodigious rate
and where two presidential candidates are promising to burn it at a
more prodigious rate still. In this sense, as Mr. Harper has observed,
Canada is definitely not the U.S.
One reason to wait before making irrevocable commitments to action is that we don't yet have any good sense of how extensively the crisis will damage the Canadian economy.
In the most recent analysis from Global Insight Canada,
released last week by the Toronto-based economic forecasting company,
managing director Dale Orr concludes that the Canadian economy will limp through the next 18 months – but probably won't fall into actual recession.
<
P CLASS='pContent'>This means, he said, that neither Canadian families nor Canadian companies will 'suffer the economic and
financial hardships of their U.S. counterparts.' And if Canada manages to avoid most of the contagion, perhaps it can also avoid most of the cure.
The
Global Insight analysis does not necessarily imply happy days. Canada
will post zero growth but not a contraction. For 2008, ironically,
Canada will post a lower growth rate, at 1 per cent, than the U.S.
will, at 3 per cent.(Mr. Orr notes that Canada's growth rate this year
will be the lowest in the G7, except for Italy.)
But the U.S. economy will fall into recession in the final quarter and will shrink for at least two quarters. Canada's won't. Canada's auto industry will be among the hardest-hit sectors of the economy – and the collapse in car sales could last for years.Mr.
Orr's assessment suggests that Canada is now almost perfectly balanced
between optimism and pessimism – precisely reflecting a zero-growth
economy.
On the plus side: Canada's financial institutions are in better shape than comparable U.S. institutions.
Canada's housing starts and housing prices will fall only slightly.
Canada's unemployment rate will rise only slightly. Oil prices will be
lower, reducing inflation and bringing lower interest rates. The fall
in the Canadian dollar will give some relief to exporters.
On the negative side: Canada's economic growth rate will remain far below potential for the next two years.
Many Canadians will feel less secure in their jobs. Corporate profits
will weaken. Lower energy prices will reduce income growth and profits
in the commodity sectors.
Canada has yet another positive factor, however. We will not have a national carbon tax imposed on a zero-growth economy. Liberal Leader Stéphane Dio
n's cherished tax increases would surely have pushed Canada into recession. Throughout Europe, countries that prematurely legislated the demise of fossil fuels are now scrambling to postpone the next round of obligations they hastily embraced in the good old precrisis days.
Ironically,
the crisis of the moment may negate the purpose of Mr. Harper's meeting
today with French President Nicolas Sarkozy and European Commission
President Jose Manuel Barroso in Montreal. Originally arranged to
advance a free-trade agreement between Canada and the European Union, this meeting may now degenerate into another illusion of crisis action. We must hope that these leaders take the longer-term perspective, that they expeditiously remove the last barriers to this necessary and natural transatlantic free-trade agreement.
Canada's economic growth depends completely on our trade with other countries. We
are dependent on the U.S. for more than one-third of our economic
growth, more than one-third of our jobs. A free-trade agreement with
the EU would supplement, and diversify, this dependency.
As Mr. Orr of Global Insight noted in his latest analysis, Canada's
slow growth in the next couple of years will be caused almost
completely by a mere 4-per-cent reduction in trade with the U.S. We need Europe as our next great trading partner – and Mr. Harper could well be the prime minister who delivers the deal. A crisis is for now. Partnerships are forever.
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摘自：Article source: 环球邮报，
http://www.globeandmail.com/newsletter
- Idiomatic usage: (vivid usage )，and expressions:
- in due course,按部就班
- the illusion will suffice. （水落石出，
- No. 1 job （首当其冲， 重中之重，首要任务，第一件事
- kept his cool and declined to （谨慎而回避，
- remarkably different from （ 浑然不同，
- burning through money at a prodigious rate （ 发疯似的“烧钱取温” “饮鸠止渴”
- bedevilling （中邪似的，
- amid （ 陷入，
- shrink （缩水，
- good old precrisis days （ 危机前的美好时光，
- demise of fossil fuels （ 谈‘油’色变， 废止石油，
- 点译：Economic & Cultural points: 经济文化点：
- One reason to wait before making irrevocable commitments to action is that we don't yet have any good sense of how extensively the crisis will damage the Canadian economy. -我們對本次危機對加拿大經濟損害程度到底有多大，一時還判斷不清，也就是為啥沒馬上採取（某些一旦做出則很難改變的）行動而需等待的原因之一。
- Liberal Leader Stéphane Dio
n's cherished tax increases would surely have pushed Canada into recession. -自由党人魁 Stéphane Dio
n 所推崇的“增加税收” 必将置经济陷于泥潭。
- Throughout Europe, countries that prematurely legislated the demise of fossil fuels are now scrambling to postpone the next round of obligations they hastily embraced in the good old precrisis days.-整個歐洲，那些個過早確定了的旨在取消石油消費的立法，在危機前還喜不巔巔地國家，現在卻想推遲執行而顯得手忙腳亂了。
- Canada's economic growth depends completely on our trade with other countries. We
are dependent on the U.S. for more than one-third of our economic
growth, more than one-third of our jobs. A free-trade agreement with
the EU would supplement, and diversify, this dependency. -加拿大的经济增长固然离不开与他国的贸易。而与美国竟有三分之一强，显然一个与欧洲的自由贸易协定对于我们减少这种贸易的依赖是一种良好的补充。
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本帖最后由 一语湖边 于 2008-10-18 22:13 编辑 ]
